Азиатский рынок: Положительное сальдо торгового баланса Китая увеличилось до максимального показателя с 2009 года

По итогам июня, профицит торгового баланса вырос до $ 32 мллрд. и достиг максимального значения с января 2009 года. Во II  квартале профицит составил около $ 69 мллрд. против $ 660 мллн. по итогам I квартала. Положительное сальдо баланса увеличилось за счет превышения темпов роста экспорта над импортом. В июне экспорт вырос на 11.3%, импорт вырос на 6.3%. В первом полугодии экспорт составил $ 955 мллрд. что на 9.2% выше аналогичного периода 2011 года. Темпы роста импорта в первом полугодии составили 6.7% ( $ 886 мллрд. в стоимостном выражении). Довольно важным событием с точки зрения данной статистики, является тот факт, что в первом полугодии крупнейшим экспортным рынком для Китая снова стали США, ранее самый большой рынок сбыта для китайских товаров был Евросоюз.

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Крупнейшим рынком сбыта для Китая в первом полугодии снова стали США.

The United States overtook the European Union as
China's largest export market in the first half of 2012, a customs
official told a press conference Tuesday, warning of lingering low
global demand for Chinese goods.
     Exports to European Union in the first half fell 0.8% to $163.06
billion while exports to the US rose 13.6% to $165.3 billion, Zheng
Yuesheng, spokesman for the General Administration of Customs, said at a
press conference here.
     «The United States has replaced the European Union as China's
largest export destination,» Zheng said. «But the momentum of the U.S.
economic recovery is not yet solid, and its demand for China's exports
has not returned to the previous level.»
     «The global economy is still in financial crisis. Major economies
are facing severe debt problems, with persistent high unemployment
rates, sluggish consumer confidence and serious demand shortages».
     Chinese exports to Germany fell in June for the fourth consecutive
month, while shipments to France declined for the third month in a row,
he said. Exports to Italy have declined for ten months since last
September, he added. 
     «Trade growth to the EU and Japan in the first half was nearly
stagnant, while growth with the emerging markets remained stable ...
Exports to the traditional European, U.S. and Japan markets accounted
for 42.1% in the overall exports, down 1.1 percentage points from the
previous year,» Zheng said. 
     Foreign-funded firms accounted for more than half of China's
overall exports, he said, warning that foreign investment to the Chinese
export sector is decreasing.
     Ministry of Commerce data showed that foreign direct investment
into China fell for six consecutive months before rebounding slightly by
0.05% in May. The FDI declined 1.91% y/y in the first five months.

CHINA: The National Development and Reform Commission will cut gasoline
price by CNY420 per ton and diesel price by CNY400 per ton from
Wednesday, energy information provider C1 Energy said. The NDRC is
expected to make an official announcement later today. On Monday, Zhou
Wangjun, deputy head of price department under the NDRC said that the
NDRC will cut the gasoline price on July 11th as international crude oil
price had fallen over 4% in the past 22 working days.
Cнижение процентной ставки со стороны Резервного Банка Австралии начинает оказывать влияние на настроения потребителей. Последние данные по индексу потребительской уверенности  Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment показали максимальные темпы роста с февраля.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment
index rose by the fastest pace since February, up 3.7% month-on-month in
July indicating the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate cuts are finally
having a positive impact on households.
     The seasonally adjusted index of consumer sentiment rose 3.7%
month-on-month in July to 99.1 compared with a 0.3% rise in June,
Westpac-MI said Wednesday. The index has now been in the pessimistic
zone for five straight months, but the latest rise is the most since the
4.2% increase in February.
     On a year-on-year basis, the index is up 6.8%. On a trend basis
also, the index is up 0.7% on-month in July and up 3.0% on-year. Last
month, both the on-month and on-year index were down on a trend basis.
     «Finally we have some evidence that the Reserve Bank's policy of
cutting the official cash rate by 125bps between November last year and
June this year is starting to gain more positive traction with
households,» Westpac's chief economist Bill Evans said.
     However, he added that the result was far from convincing and
«should not be interpreted that we can expect confidence to steadily
return to more normal levels over the months ahead.»
     The index is now 2% above its level in October last year, prior to
the beginning of the RBA's rate cut cycle. But it is still 4.1% below
the reading in November, Westpac said.
     Evans said ongoing concerns, particularly around the international
economic outlook, continued to mute the impact of the RBA's rate cuts in
May and June. «In fact, despite the cumulative cuts of 125bps we still
have the situation that pessimists slightly outnumber optimists,» Evans
     In the latest result, there was a strong 5.5% jump in the
confidence of those respondents who hold a mortgage. This is despite the
RBA leaving the cash rate unchanged at the July board meeting.
     All components of the index increased in July with the sub-indexes
tracking consumer expectations for economic conditions over the next 12
months and 5 years, rising by 5.8% and 5.2% respectively. The sub-index
tracking responses on whether now is a good time to purchase a major
household item rose by 1.1%. Respondents were also more positive around
their own finances. The sub-indexes tracking assessments of finances
relative to a year ago improved by 4.6% and the outlook for finances
over the next 12 months improved by 3%.
     However, the sub-index tracking respondents' outlook for their
finances over the next 12 months was still 9.4% below the level in
October last year, Westpac said.
     Regarding the RBA's cash rate, Evans said he is sticking to his
view for a total 75 basis points of cash rate cuts by the year-end but
says the call for the next cut in August «could prove to be too early.»
     «However, because we believe that Australia needs lower rates and
much can happen, particularly in the international economy, we are
comfortable maintaining that view,» Evans said.
Акции крупнейшего китайского брокера Citic Securities упали на 9% после слухов об убытках почти в 500 млн. долларов и аресте главы компании. В самом Citic Securities все эти слухи опровергают. Официальная отчетность Citic Securities будет опубликована 30 августа. 

Shares of Shanghai-listed Citic Securities, China’s largest brokerage firm, fell by 9.1 percent on Monday after rumors the company had suffered a large 2.9 billion yuan ($460 million) loss on overseas trading.
But a spokesperson for the company denied the rumors and told CNBC that reports the company’s chairman had been arrested by the police were also untrue.
The drop in Citic’s shares also affected other brokers on Monday with shares of Haitong Securities falling 8.6 percent. Reuters reported that traders were worried over earnings in the latest quarter.
Citic securities reports results on August 30th and the firm is currently in a quiet period, during which it cannot discuss its financials.
Официальный орган Народного Банка Китая " Financial News" публикует статью, в которой обозначаются риски для экономики в виде значительного роста объема плохих долгов у банков. В статье намекается, что необходимо проводить более жесткую политику в отношении банковских кредитов. 

Народный Банк Китая зафиксировал рост плохих долгов у банков.
China's financial system is seeing increasing risks as a slowing economy leads to an increase in bad loans, the Financial News said in a front page editorial Tuesday. «Risks within the financial system can be easily exposed as the external environment changes and domestic economy slows,» said the newspaper, which is published by the People's Bank of China. «Bank non-performing assets may increase further as economic growth slows,» it warned. The editorial follows comments Monday which appeared designed to cool speculation that the central bank is poised to cut the reserve requirement again following the release of disappointing economic data last week. Non-performing loans rose CNY28.7 billion during the first half of this year to CNY452.8 billion, the newspaper said. Leading indicators for asset quality are also worsening. Those loans in the «special mention» category rose CNY72.7 billion in the first half to CNY1.45 trillion. The State Council has held several meetings recently to discuss threats to the financial system and discussed the need to prevent the outbreak of systemic or regional risk. Local governments are facing revenue shortfalls and may not generate enough income to repay their debts while bankruptcies in the real estate industry will add to bank bad debts, the newspaper said.

Накануне завтрашней статистики по торговому балансу Китая, появилась утечка информации от китайской прессы. China Daily ссылась на хорошо информированные источники, сообщает то статистика по экспорту за сентябрь покажет рост на 10%, по импорту рост на 2%. Средние прогнозы по рынку по поводу торгового баланса, базируются на цифре по экспорту в +6%, по импорту в + 2.4%. Таким образом, если экспорт действительно увеличится на 10% по итогам сентября, это будет самый значительный рост этого показателя со II квартала нынешнего года

China Daily cites «well-placed source» saying September growth rose nearly 10% and imports by over 2%. Compares with market expectations of +6% and +2.4% respectively. Data due Saturday morning local time

Китайская пресса подтвердила репутацию лучшего китайского «инсайдера». Экспорт из Китая вырос как раз на те почти 10% о которых писала China Daily.


Rumour of imminent Chinese RRR cut
CHINA RRR CUT TO BE ANNOUNCED AT 4:15 (9.15 ldn time)
ответ CHINA: PBOC source says chances of 1615 reserve cut «impossible», contrary to market rumors.
Меня не столько слухи сколько незначительный «глюк» напряг))

А слухи, это DJ так «поняли» очередной минимум юаня к зелени и типа реакция может быть… дальше естессно фантазии..

А глюк на графике мне нравиЦЦа =) 4.78
Свежий ЦК компартии вполне может замутит процесс а-ля ревальвация 2005.
Экономисты Economic Research Department при ФРБ Сан-Франциско, господа Mark Spiegel и Israel Malkinв своем исследовании посвященном ситуации в китайской экономике, делают вывод, что несмотря на все признаки пика текущей модели развития Китая, нельзя утверждать что темпы экономического роста в среднем по стране существенно упадут. По их мнению, в развитых прибрежных провинциях Китая, экономические темпы скорее всего сократятся до 5.5%, однако при этом начнется более активное увеличение экономического роста в глубинных провинциях, где объемы экономики могут составлять в среднем 7.5%.

 Many predict a slowdown in China's economic growth is inevitable because the Asia giant is approaching the per capita income at which growth in other countries began to decelerate, but researchers at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank argue the country may escape such a slowdown because of its uneven development.

In a research note published Monday, Mark Spiegel, a vice president in the bank's Economic Research Department, and Israel Malkin, a research associate, said an analysis based on episodes of rapid expansion in four other Asian countries suggests «growth in China's more developed provinces may slow to 5.5% by the close of the decade. But growth in the country's less-developed provinces is expected to run at a robust 7.5% pace.»

«This implies that, in the near future, rapid growth in China will be concentrated primarily in the Chinese interior rather than in the more advanced areas near the coast,» the authors said. As a result, China's overall growth slowdown may not be severe, they said.

They noted that while average income in China appears to be headed towards levels that have been associated with growth slowdowns in other countries, high income inequality between wealthier coastal provinces and the less-developed interior suggest that deceleration may not be substantial.

«China's relatively undeveloped areas may be able to grow at high rates for some time before reaching income levels associated with slowdown,» they wrote. «This could delay a middle-income trap growth slowdown for the nation as a whole.»

They added that emerging Chinese provinces are likely to maintain their high growth rates for some time after their wealthier counterparts have slowed.

So, «While the advanced provinces may reach income levels associated with the middle-income trap, the rapid expansion in the emerging provinces will at least partly offset the overall effect on China's growth,» Spiegel and Malkin said.

They warn, however, that many other developments could influence the relative pace of growth in different regions of China, including government spending on infrastructure in the outlying regions, the pursuit of policies designed to reduce income inequality, and the impact of continued labor migration from emerging provinces.

«Substantial uncertainty remains about the relative pace of growth in the emerging and advanced Chinese provinces,» they concluded.



CHINA: Chinese economy has hit bottom in the third quarter and economic growth will see modest rebound in the fourth quarter. Full year economic growth is expected a bit higher than government's target of 7.5% growth rate while CPI growth will be a bit lower than 3%, Yu Bin, a senior researcher with the Development and Research Center under the State Council told Xinhua in an interview.

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