Китайский рынок: Ограничения в секторе коммерческого жилья сохранятся в этом году

Несмотря на более активное смягчение монетарной политики со стороны Народного Банка Китая и меры по стимулированию кредитования в экономике, китайское правительство не намерено снимать ограничения в секторе недвижимости. В своем выступлении премьер министр Wen Jiabao заявил о необходимости продолжения политики сдерживания роста цен на жилье, чтобы недопустить нового витка увеличения стоимости в условиях снижения процентных ставок в стране.



China must firmly maintain its property tightening measures to cool housing prices, Premier Wen Jiabao was quoted as saying on Saturday, underscoring official concerns about renewed bubbles as the central bank ratchets up policy easing to support growth. 

«Currently, the property market adjustment is still at a crucial stage and we must unswervingly continue the work and make the fight against speculative property investment demand a long-term policy,» the official Xinhua news agency quoted Wen as saying during a trip to the eastern province of Jiangsu.

 
Wen repeated his longstanding pledge to achieve «a reasonable pull-back» in housing prices, but did not elaborate.
«We must not allow housing prices to rebound that will waste all of our previous efforts,» he was quoted as saying.
Home prices inched up in major cities in the second quarter from the previous quarter and some cities also saw new residential apartments picking up in June from May, Wen said.
«Market expectations about the trend of housing prices have showed some changes and people are generally worried about a rebound in housing prices,» Wen said.
The government will take measures to curb speculative demand and prevent local governments from relaxing home buying in «disguised forms» and clamp down on market rumours that could fan market speculation, he said.
The government will also strictly implement the «differentiated» credit and tax policies and take steps to «severely punish firms, agencies and individuals for obtaining their home purchase qualifications by cheating», Wen added.
Meanwhile, the government will push forward property tax reforms to establish the «long-term mechanism» for property market controls, Wen said.
The government will build more state-subsidised affordable housing for middle- and low-income households, he said.

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свернуть / развернуть
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индекс потребительских цен 



индекс производственных цен 
 
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если тренд по потребительской инфляции в Китае сохранится таким же еще несколько месяцев, годовая инфляция может снизиться до нули или даже оказаться отрицательной...



 The accelerating downward trend in consumer prices
in China has raised the prospect that the CPI annual rate could turn
negativen before the end of this year.
 
     This prospect, spurred by weaker economic growth both at home and
abroad, may be one explanation for the government's surprise interest
rate cut last week — the second surprise cut in a month — and could
herald additional aggressive monetary easing in the months ahead.
 
     The deceleration in the headline CPI annual rate is due to two main
factors: the base effect from high CPI rates last summer; and the rapid
decline in food prices.
 
     The pace of the month-on-month decline in the consumer price index
accelerated further in June — to -0.6% from -0.3% in May and from -0.1%
in April — led by lower food prices.
 
     This has pushed the headline annual rate down to only 2.2% in June
from 3.0% in May and 3.4% in April.
 
     If consumer prices are unchanged m/m in July, then the base effect
from July last year — when CPI peaked at +6.5% y/y — would push the
headline rate down to only 1.6%, according to MNI calculations. If CPI
declines again m/m, then the headline rate would fall further toward 1%.
 
     This trend could lead to negative headline annual CPI as early as
August, depending on m/m outcomes. 
 
     Even if one assumes prices remain stable on a m/m basis for the
rest of the year, then the headline annual CPI would be negative in
January next year.
 
     Whether a few months of negative CPI readings would turn into
extended deflationary pressure would depend on a series of factors,
especially the performance of the world economy and its impact on
international commodity prices as well as the effectiveness of Chinese
government efforts to stimulate its domestic economy.
 
     In June, food prices fell 1.6% m/m, causing the year-on-year rate
to decelerate to only 3.8% from 6.4% in May. Most food prices fell
during the month, except for the egg price, which is up 11.4% from a
month ago. Remarkably, the vegetable price dropped by 15.2%, down for
the third consecutive month. Pork prices posted the fifth consecutive
monthly drop, decreasing 1.6% from May.
 
     Non-food prices were stable at 1.4% y/y in May. Monthly declines
were led by transportation and communication costs, which dropped 0.5%
from May, the sharpest decline among non-food components, due to the
government's cut in motor fuel prices earlier in the month. The drop in
international oil prices in June already raises the possibility that the
government will cut gasoline prices further in the near future, adding
to downward consumer price pressure.
 
     Residential and entertainment prices, the two largest components in
the non-food category, were both unchanged in June. Utility fees were
down 0.9% this month because of lower energy costs but rent was up 0.5%,
accelerating from previous months after remaining flat in April and
rising only 0.2% in May.
 
 
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Правительство Китая рассматривает несколько вариантов стимулирования, в том числе и кредитную поддержку для провинциальных правительств. Меры включают смягчение кредитных требований при финансировании различных проектов, которые будут иметь финансовую отдачу.


CHINA: The government is considering introducing ten measures to
stabilize growth, including credit loosening for local government
financing vehicles, the 21st Century Business Herald said, citing a
banking regulatory official in southeast China. Another official told
the newspaper that banks are encouraged to increase lending to
province-level financing vehicles, and to those which have cash flows to
fully cover project repayment via asset restructuring. China has
strictly controlled new lending to the sector this year in a bid to
control total liabilities of financing vehicles. But quantity
restrictions, under increasing direct financing via issuing notes and
bonds, and off-balance-sheeting fund raising such as trusts, has
weakened its effectiveness.
 
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продажи авто в китае выросли в июне


China's passenger car sales rose 15.8% y/y in June
to 1.28 million units, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers
announced Wednesday.
 
     The growth rate compares with May's 22.56% increase.
 
     On a sequential basis, June passenger car sales rose 0.2% m/m,
compared with May's +0.46% m/m rise.
 
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ДАННЫЕ ПО ИНФЛЯЦИИ В КИТАЕ.


потребительские цены
 

оптовые цены

 
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 01:32 08/09  CHINA JAN-JLY PROPERTY INVESTMENT +15.4% Y/Y VS +33.6% JAN-JLY 11
01:32 08/09  CHINA JULY RETAIL SALES +1.05% M/M: NBS
01:32 08/09  CHINA JULY FIXED INVESTMENT +1.42% M/M: NBS
01:31 08/09  CHINA JULY INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT +0.66% M/M: NBS
01:31 08/09  CHINA JAN-JLY RETAIL SALES +14.2% Y/Y VS +16.8% Y/Y JAN-JLY 11
01:31 08/09  CHINA JAN-JLY INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT +10.3% VS +14.3% JAN-JLY 11
01:31 08/09  CHINA JULY RETAIL SALES +13.1% Y/Y VS MNI MEDIAN +13.6%
01:30 08/09  CHINA JAN-JLY FIXED INVESTMENT +20.4% Y/Y VS MNI MEDIAN +20.5%
01:30 08/09  CHINA JULY INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT +9.2% Y/Y VS MNI MEDIAN +9.7%
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промышленное про-во в китае

 
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данные по китайскому экпорту показали самые слабые темпы прироста с 2009 года, импорт тоже очень слабый.

 
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Григорий, а стат данных по торговле с евросоюзом не было? Интересно посмотреть на динамику торговли.
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Учитывая то, что евросоюз является (или до недавнего времени являлся) крупнейшим торговым партнером китая, стоит ли ожидать снижения спроса на металлы и нефть? Плюс к тому дорожающий австралиец делает руду дороже.
И сможет ли денежная накачка обеспечить выпадающий спрос (в стоимостном выражении тех же металлов и нефти)?
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