Кредитный рынок: Агентство Moody's понижает прогноз по рейтингу Германии и Голландии.

Агентство  Moody's Investors Service понижает кредитный рейтинг по Германии, Голландии и Люксембурга до «негативного» прогноза, сохранив при этом рейтинг «ААА» для Финляндии. В своем заявлении,  Moody's Investors Service отмечает, что в связи с рисками выхода Греции из Еврозоны, усиливается угроза распространения негативного влияния на Испанию и Италию, по этой причине стоимость затрат для таких стран Еврозоны как Германия и Голландия, существенно возрастает.

London, 23 July 2012 — Moody's Investors Service has today revised
to negative from stable the outlooks on the Aaa sovereign ratings of
Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg. In addition, Moody's has also
affirmed Finland's Aaa rating and stable outlook.
 
     All four sovereigns are adversely affected by the following two
euro-area-wide developments:
 
     1.) The rising uncertainty regarding the outcome of the euro area
debt crisis given the current policy framework, and the increased
susceptibility to event risk stemming from the increased likelihood of
Greece's exit from the euro area, including the broader impact that such
an event would have on euro area members, particularly Spain and Italy.
 
     2.) Even if such an event is avoided, there is an increasing
likelihood that greater collective support for other euro area
sovereigns, most notably Spain and Italy, will be required. Given the
greater ability to absorb the costs associated with this support, this
burden will likely fall most heavily on more highly rated member states
if the euro area is to be preserved in its current form.
 
     These increased risks, in combination with the country-specific
considerations discussed below, have prompted the changes in the rating
outlooks of Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg. In contrast,
Finland's unique credit profile, as discussed below, remains consistent
with a stable rating outlook.
 
     RATIONALE FOR OUTLOOK CHANGE
 
     Today's decision to change to negative the outlooks on the Aaa
ratings of Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg is driven by Moody's
view that the level of uncertainty about the outlook for the euro area,
and the potential impact of plausible scenarios on member states, are no
longer consistent with stable outlooks.
 
     Firstly, while it is not Moody's base case, the risk of an exit by
Greece from the euro area has increased relative to the rating agency's
expectations earlier this year. In Moody's view, a Greek exit from the
monetary union would pose a material threat to the euro. Although
Moody's would expect a strong policy response from the euro area in such
an event, it would still set off a chain of financial-sector shocks and
associated liquidity pressures for sovereigns and banks that
policymakers could only contain at a very high cost. Should they fail to
do so, the result would be a gradual unwinding of the currency union,
which Moody's continues to believe would be profoundly negative for all
euro area members. The rating agency has reflected this risk by raising
the score for the «Susceptibility to Event Risk» factor in its sovereign
rating methodology from «very low» to «low» for these three countries.
 
     Secondly, even in the absence of any exit, the contingent
liabilities taken on by the strongest euro area sovereigns are rising as
a result of European policymakers' continued reactive and gradualist
policy response, as is the probability of those liabilities
crystallising (as Moody's already observed in a recent Special Comment,
entitled «Moody's: EU Summit's Measures Reduce Likelihood of Shocks but
at a Cost», published on 5 July 2012). Moody's view remains that this
approach will not produce a stable outcome, and will very likely be
associated with a series of shocks, which are likely to rise in
magnitude the longer the crisis persists. The continued deterioration in
Spain and Italy's macroeconomic and funding environment has increased
the risk that they will require some kind of external support. The scale
of these contingent liabilities is of a materially larger order of
magnitude for these countries due to their size and their debt burdens;
for example, the size of Spain's economy and government bond market is
around double the combined size of those of Greece, Portugal and
Ireland. Although the rising likelihood of stronger euro area members
needing to support other sovereigns has not yet affected Moody's
assessment of these sovereigns' «Government Financial Strength» in its
rating methodology, the rating agency nevertheless believes that it
needs to take some account of the impact that additional financial
commitments would have on the assessment of their financial strength,
given the material deterioration in these countries' fiscal metrics
since 2007. Over the long term, Moody's believes that institutional
reforms within the euro area have the potential to strengthen the credit
standing of most or all euro area governments; however, over the
transitional period (which could last many years), the additional
pressure on the strongest nations' balance sheets will increase the
pressure on their credit standing.
 
     Accordingly, Moody's now has negative outlooks on those Aaa-rated
euro area sovereigns whose balance sheets are expected to bear the main
financial burden of support — whether because of the need to expand the
European Stability Mechanism (ESM) or the need to develop more ad hoc
forms of liquidity support. These countries now comprise Germany and the
Netherlands, in addition to Austria and France whose rating outlooks
were changed to negative on 13 February 2012. The credit profile of
these sovereigns is most affected by the policy dilemma described above.
 
     Finland, with its stable outlook, is now the sole exception among
the Aaa-rated euro area sovereigns. Although Finland would not be
expected to be unaffected by the euro crisis, its net assets (Finland
has no debt on a net basis), its small and domestically oriented banking
system, its limited exposure to, and therefore relative insulation from,
the euro area in terms of trade, and its attempts to collateralise its
euro area sovereign support together provide strong buffers which
differentiate it from the other Aaas.
 
     Today's actions on the four sovereigns' outlooks incorporate the
implications of certain euro area developments, such as the rising risk
of a Greek exit, the growing likelihood of collective support for other
euro area sovereigns, and stalled economic growth. By the end of the
third quarter, Moody's will also assess the implications of these
developments for Aaa-rated Austria and France, whose rating outlooks
were moved to negative from stable in February. Specifically, Moody's
will review whether their current rating outlooks remain appropriate or
whether more extensive rating reviews are warranted.
 

Комментарии (8)

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Голдман Сакс продолжает удерживать длинные позиции по долговым бумагам Испании, Италии и Ирландии в рассчете на вмешательство ЕЦБ.

Recommended on June 29 that investors go long an equally-weighted basket of 5-yr Spanish, Irish and Italian bonds, Francesco Garzarelli, co-head of global macro markets research, writes in client note.

● Opened trade at 5.96% 2012, with target of 4.5% and stop on close above 6.5%; basket now at 6.20%


● Still likes trade because sees ECB as likely to act to support private non-financial sector in southern Europe, following increase in short-dated yields; this should help govt debt


Policy makers probably want to keep Spanish, Italian govt bond mkts open; expects some combination of EFSF/ESM intervention, and ECB assistance


Intermediate-to-long maturities for both issuers “hard to invest in” until some clarity provided on how debt overhang will ultimately be addressed








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Вспомнил комментарий от 04 мая 2010 года:
По мнению аналитиков Citigroup, несмотря на скепсис большинства специалистов, спасение Греции может привести к росту евро выше $1.35. «Со временем инвесторы поймут, что снижение единой валюты на фоне долгового кризисы в Еврозоне оказалось чрезмерным», — пишет в сегодняшнем обзоре Стивен Ингландер, стратег банка в Нью-Йорке. — «По мере восстановления доверия, евро, вероятно, начнет среднесрочный аптренд к области $1.35/$1.40, однако для дальнейшего роста понадобятся уже новые драйверы в виде нового позитива из Европы или негатива из США».  

На момент комментария курс евро/доллар был около 1,31 
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Агентство Moody's понижает кредитный прогноз фонда EFSF со стабильного на негативный.

Moody's Investors Service has changed the outlook on the provisional (P)Aaa long-term rating of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) to negative from stable, a blow to a fund that was supposed to backstop struggling EU members.
The ratings agency said the move followed on from its decision earlier in the week to change the outlooks for Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg to negative. All three are guarantors for the EFSF, with Germany holding the largest share at just over 29 percent.
«The change in the outlook of the EFSF reflects the now negative rating outlooks on all but one of its Aaa guarantors — namely Finland,» Moody's said in a statement.
Investors Service has changed the outlook on the provisional (P)Aaa long-term rating of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) to negative from stable, a blow to a fund that was supposed to backstop struggling EU members.
The ratings agency said the move followed on from its decision earlier in the week to change the outlooks for Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg to negative. All three are guarantors for the EFSF, with Germany holding the largest share at just over 29 percent.
«The change in the outlook of the EFSF reflects the now negative rating outlooks on all but one of its Aaa guarantors — namely Finland,» Moody's said in a statement.
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 Испанская газета  «El Economista» сообщает о тлм, что якобы правительство Германии предлагает испанскому правительству принять пакет помощи в размере 300 мллрд.евро

The German government is urging Spain to request a 300 billion-euro ($362 billion) bailout package that would give the Spanish Treasury up to two years without needing to sell debt to investors, El Economista reported without saying how it obtained the information.
The first tranche of 100 billion euros would come from the euro area’s temporary bailout fund with the balance to come from the permanent mechanism that is due to be set up this year, the newspaper said.
Spain would likely pay between 2 percent and 2.5 percent on the loans, El Economista added.
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Это как раз, что нужно для… лечения
испанская долговая баллада *EUR
2012 45 млрд займы с % к погашению
2013 127 млрд.(+82);
2014 208 млрд.(+82);
2015 280 млрд.(+72);
2016 350 млрд.(+62);
2017 397 млрд.(+47);
ресурс Bloomberg + F.A.Z.
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НОВОТНЫ ИЗ ЕЦБ ГОВОРИТ, ЧТО ФОНД ESM МОЖЕТ ПОЛУЧИТЬ БАНКОВСКУЮ ЛИЦЕНЗИЮ И УЧАСТВОВАТЬ В КРЕДИТНЫХ СХЕМАХ

 
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Немецкая газета Die Zeit сообщает о том, что ЕС рассматривает возможность дополнительного списания греческого долга за счет суверенных кредиторов.


— EU discussing options to avert Greek default at working level, Die Zeit reports, citing unidentified bankers.
● Among proposals being discussed are getting sovereign creditors to accept losses on their Greek debt holdings; this would also affect Germany: Zeit
● Further option may be that Greece can tap funds contained in the growth pact agreed in June: Zeit
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Последние опросы в Германии показали, что нынешний Канцлер Меркель по популярности значительно опережает своего соперника из партии социал-демократов. Меркель поддерживает 59% населения, а лидера социал-демократов Sigmar Gabriel только 17%

Der Spiegel: According to a new poll by Germany's
renowned research institute Forsa, Angela Merkel continues to be popular
in Germany. Compared directly to other salient political figures in
Germany, she is always ahead. In comparison to social democrat and head
of the SPD Sigmar Gabriel, 59% vote in favour of Merkel, whilst only 17%
are in favour of Gabriel. The general mood in Germany appears to be that
most Germans are happy with Merkel's work, says Forsa CEO Manfred
Guellner.
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